观察性研究能虽然能发现“某些现象经常结伴出现”，但这并不意味着一个导致另一个。这里的关系可以有很多种情况，可以是 A 引起 B 或 B 引起 A；又或者 A 和 B 都是由 C 引起的等情况。就像在小区门口蹲点，发现“拎垃圾袋的人更容易穿拖鞋”，真正的原因是“家里垃圾满 / 要去倒垃圾”，而不是垃圾袋让人换了鞋。
观察性研究能虽然能发现“某些现象经常结伴出现”，但这并不意味着一个导致另一个。这里的关系可以有很多种情况，可以是 A 引起 B 或 B 引起 A；又或者 A 和 B 都是由 C 引起的等情况。就像在小区门口蹲点，发现“拎垃圾袋的人更容易穿拖鞋”，真正的原因是“家里垃圾满 / 要去倒垃圾”，而不是垃圾袋让人换了鞋。
[1]MacLeod, C. M. (2020). Zeigarnik and von Restorff: The memory effects and the stories behind them. Memory & Cognition, 48(6), 1073–1088. https://doi.org/10.3758/s13421-020-01033-5 [2]Zeigarnik, B. (1938). On finished and unfinished tasks. In W. D. Ellis(Ed.), A source book of Gestalt psychology. (300–314). Kegan Paul, Trench, Trubner & Company. https://doi.org/10.1037/11496-025 [3]Marrow, A. J. (1969). The practical theorist: The life and work of Kurt Lewin. New York : Basic Books . [4]Oyama, Y., Manalo, E., & Nakatani, Y. (2018). The Hemingway effect: How failing to finish a task can have a positive effect on motivation. Thinking Skills and Creativity, 30, 7–18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tsc.2018.01.001 [5]Masicampo, E. J., & Baumeister, R. F. (2011). Consider it done! Plan making can eliminate the cognitive effects of unfulfilled goals. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 101(4), 667–683. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0024192 [6]McGraw, K. O., & Fiala, J. (1982). Undermining the Zeigarnik effect: Another hidden cost of reward. Journal of Personality, 50(1), 58–66. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6494.1982.tb00745.x
[1]MacLeod, C. M. (2020). Zeigarnik and von Restorff: The memory effects and the stories behind them. Memory & Cognition, 48(6), 1073–1088. https://doi.org/10.3758/s13421-020-01033-5 [2]Zeigarnik, B. (1938). On finished and unfinished tasks. In W. D. Ellis(Ed.), A source book of Gestalt psychology. (300–314). Kegan Paul, Trench, Trubner & Company. https://doi.org/10.1037/11496-025 [3]Marrow, A. J. (1969). The practical theorist: The life and work of Kurt Lewin. New York : Basic Books . [4]Oyama, Y., Manalo, E., & Nakatani, Y. (2018). The Hemingway effect: How failing to finish a task can have a positive effect on motivation. Thinking Skills and Creativity, 30, 7–18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tsc.2018.01.001 [5]Masicampo, E. J., & Baumeister, R. F. (2011). Consider it done! Plan making can eliminate the cognitive effects of unfulfilled goals. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 101(4), 667–683. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0024192 [6]McGraw, K. O., & Fiala, J. (1982). Undermining the Zeigarnik effect: Another hidden cost of reward. Journal of Personality, 50(1), 58–66. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6494.1982.tb00745.x
Jin Xiangjun, former governor of Shanxi province, has been expelled from the Communist Party of China and dismissed from public office for serious violations, according to a decision made by China's top anti-corruption watchdogs. The decision was disclosed online by the CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the National Commission of Supervision on Friday after their investigation. The commissions pointed out that Jin had seriously violated the Party's disciplines and was suspected of duty-related crimes, leading to the decision to expel him from the Party, remove him from public office and confiscate his illicit gains. His case will be referred to prosecutors for further review and prosecution, they added.
\n
Former securities official under probe
\n
Guo Xudong, a former senior official of China Securities Regulatory Commission, is being investigated for suspected serious misconduct in office, the country's anti-corruption watchdogs announced on Friday. Guo voluntarily turned herself in and is currently under the investigation by the team from the Communist Party of China Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the National Commission of Supervision stationed at the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as the supervisory body in Taizhou, Zhejiang province. Public information shows that Guo graduated from Nankai University in Tianjin and joined the China Securities Regulatory Commission in 1998. She previously worked on the commission's issuance examination committee and served as deputy head of the issuance supervision department.
\n
Court grants divorce to cliff push survivor
\n
A Chinese woman, who miraculously survived a 2019 attempt on her life when her husband pushed her from a 34-meter-high cliff in Thailand while she was pregnant, has been granted a divorce from her imprisoned attacker. A Nanjing court on Friday ruled in her favor, dissolving the marriage and ordering her former husband to pay substantial damages of 500,000 yuan ($69,000) in divorce damages. The Qinhuai district people's court in Nanjing, Jiangsu province, announced the verdict, concluding the long-running divorce dispute between Wang Nuannuan and her former husband, surnamed Yu. He was convicted of attempted murder in Thailand and sentenced to 33 years and four months in prison.
\n",
- "content": "
Shanxi ex-governor expelled from CPC
\n
Jin Xiangjun, former governor of Shanxi province, has been expelled from the Communist Party of China and dismissed from public office for serious violations, according to a decision made by China's top anti-corruption watchdogs. The decision was disclosed online by the CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the National Commission of Supervision on Friday after their investigation. The commissions pointed out that Jin had seriously violated the Party's disciplines and was suspected of duty-related crimes, leading to the decision to expel him from the Party, remove him from public office and confiscate his illicit gains. His case will be referred to prosecutors for further review and prosecution, they added.
\n
Former securities official under probe
\n
Guo Xudong, a former senior official of China Securities Regulatory Commission, is being investigated for suspected serious misconduct in office, the country's anti-corruption watchdogs announced on Friday. Guo voluntarily turned herself in and is currently under the investigation by the team from the Communist Party of China Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the National Commission of Supervision stationed at the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as the supervisory body in Taizhou, Zhejiang province. Public information shows that Guo graduated from Nankai University in Tianjin and joined the China Securities Regulatory Commission in 1998. She previously worked on the commission's issuance examination committee and served as deputy head of the issuance supervision department.
\n
Court grants divorce to cliff push survivor
\n
A Chinese woman, who miraculously survived a 2019 attempt on her life when her husband pushed her from a 34-meter-high cliff in Thailand while she was pregnant, has been granted a divorce from her imprisoned attacker. A Nanjing court on Friday ruled in her favor, dissolving the marriage and ordering her former husband to pay substantial damages of 500,000 yuan ($69,000) in divorce damages. The Qinhuai district people's court in Nanjing, Jiangsu province, announced the verdict, concluding the long-running divorce dispute between Wang Nuannuan and her former husband, surnamed Yu. He was convicted of attempted murder in Thailand and sentenced to 33 years and four months in prison.
US President Donald Trump suggested on Thursday that Spain be expelled from NATO for refusing to increase its defense spending. "They have no excuse not to do this," Trump told reporters at the White House during a meeting with visiting Finnish President Alexander Stubb. "Maybe you should throw them out of NATO frankly. You people are gonna have to start speaking to Spain," Trump said. "You have to call them and find why are they a laggard." Under pressure from Trump, NATO members in June agreed to raise their military spending to 5 percent of gross domestic product by 2035. Spain on Friday rejected Trump's suggestion it should be expelled from NATO for failing to meet his ramped-up defense spending target. "Spain is a committed and full member of NATO. And it meets its capacity targets as much as the United States," Spanish government sources said.
\n
EUROPE
\n
EU chief survives 2 no-confidence votes
\n
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen survived two motions of no-confidence in the European Parliament on Thursday, following accusations ranging from an alleged unfair trade deal with the United States to inaction over Israel. A total of 594 Members of the European Parliament took part in the vote, accounting for 82.5 percent of all 720 members. The first motion was rejected with 179 votes in favor, 378 against, and 37 abstentions. The second motion was also rejected with 133 votes in favor, 383 against, and 78 abstentions. According to the Parliament's rules, a motion of no confidence can only be adopted if supported by more than two-thirds of the voting members.
\n
THE PHILIPPINES
\n
7.4-magnitude quake kills at least 3
\n
A powerful 7.4-magnitude earthquake struck off the southern Philippines on Friday, killing at least three people and triggering regional tsunami warnings that were later lifted. The quake hit about 20 kilometers off Manay town in the Mindanao region at 9:43 am, according to the United States Geological Survey. One person was killed when a wall collapsed in Mati city, the largest population hub near the quake's epicenter, while a local man suffered a fatal heart attack, local officials said. Another person was killed in Davao city, more than 100 kilometers west of the epicenter, a city government statement said without giving details.
Palestinians celebrate in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip on Thursday following news of a new Gaza ceasefire deal.
\n
Einav Zangauker, the mother of hostage Matan Zangauker, rejoices on Thursday at the "Hostages Square" in Tel Aviv, Israel, after US President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Hamas had agreed on the first phase of a Gaza ceasefire.
\n
The international community has expressed hope for peace and urged Israel and Hamas to fulfill their commitments after the two parties agreed to the "first phase" of a deal signaling a breakthrough in the two-year conflict in Gaza.
\n
The initial phase of the plan involves the release of all 20 living Israeli hostages remaining in Gaza in the coming days, the release of nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and the retreat of Israeli troops from the majority of Gaza.
\n
It was yielded from indirect talks in Egypt, based on a 20-point framework offered by United States President Donald Trump.
\n
"This means that all of the hostages will be released very soon, and Israel will withdraw their troops to an agreed-upon line as the first steps toward a strong, durable, and everlasting peace," Trump wrote on social media platform Truth Social on Wednesday, first announcing the deal.
\n
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he would convene his government later on Thursday to approve the agreement, adding in a statement that it was "a great day for Israel".
\n
Hamas also confirmed the accord, but called on Trump and the guarantor states to ensure that Israel fully implements the ceasefire.
\n
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, in a statement published by the Wafa news agency on Thursday, praised all mediators and stressed the need for all parties to commit to the immediate implementation of the agreement and reiterated that sovereignty over the Gaza Strip belongs to the State of Palestine.
\n
Abbas reiterated that the connection between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip must be achieved through unified Palestinian government institutions, including an administrative committee and Palestinian security forces, within the framework of a single system and law, and with Arab and international support.
\n
While the mediators had widely been praised, Mustafa Barghouti, founder of the Palestinian National Initiative, said that the primary credit for halting the war in Gaza and "ethnic cleansing of its people" goes to the heroism, steadfastness and bravery of the Palestinian people.
\n
Barghouti also said that caution must be maintained against the schemes of Netanyahu and his government, and that efforts should "focus on supporting the resilience of our people in the Gaza Strip", rebuilding what has been destroyed there, and confronting the colonial settlement onslaught in the West Bank and Jerusalem.
\n
A similar view was echoed by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. The second-largest armed group in Gaza said that the ceasefire agreement and prisoner exchange are not a "gift from anyone" and cited the sacrifices of the Palestinian people, although the group noted international efforts in securing the deal.
\n
News of the deal prompted celebrations in Israel, Gaza, and beyond, with Israeli families of hostages letting off fireworks, while Palestinians clapped and cheered in hopes of an end to their sufferings, though many are in doubt of Israeli commitments.
\n
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres commended the diplomatic efforts.
\n
"I urge all stakeholders to seize this momentous opportunity to establish a credible political path forward toward ending the occupation, recognizing the right to self-determination of the Palestinian people and achieving a two-state solution that enables Israelis and Palestinians to live in peace and security," Guterres said in a statement on Thursday.
\n
Qatar said the deal was the "first phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement, which will lead to ending the war, the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, and the entry of aid".
\n
In a televised speech on Wednesday, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi said that the talks in Sharm el-Sheikh were "progressing positively", Xinhua News Agency reported.
\n
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer welcomed the agreement and said the agreement must now be implemented "in full, without delay, and accompanied by the immediate lifting of all restrictions on lifesaving humanitarian aid to Gaza".
\n
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said New Delhi welcomes the agreement on the first phase of President Trump's peace plan and hopes the release of hostages and enhanced humanitarian assistance to the people of Gaza "will bring respite to them and pave the way for lasting peace".
\n
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, in an interview published on Wednesday, said Trump's plan may be general in approach, but remains the best proposal "on the table" for now.
\n
While the agreement is being described as a breakthrough, it was short on detail — including a timeline for Israeli withdrawal of all troops — and left many unresolved questions that could yet lead to its collapse, as has happened with previous peace efforts.
\n
Secretary-General of the Norwegian Refugee Council Jan Egeland said stopping the bombing alone "will not end survivors' suffering" and cautioned against repeating the mistakes of previous ceasefires.
\n
Contact the writers at cuihaipei@chinadaily.com.cn
\n",
- "content": "
Palestinians celebrate in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip on Thursday following news of a new Gaza ceasefire deal.
\n
Einav Zangauker, the mother of hostage Matan Zangauker, rejoices on Thursday at the "Hostages Square" in Tel Aviv, Israel, after US President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Hamas had agreed on the first phase of a Gaza ceasefire.
\n
The international community has expressed hope for peace and urged Israel and Hamas to fulfill their commitments after the two parties agreed to the "first phase" of a deal signaling a breakthrough in the two-year conflict in Gaza.
\n
The initial phase of the plan involves the release of all 20 living Israeli hostages remaining in Gaza in the coming days, the release of nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and the retreat of Israeli troops from the majority of Gaza.
\n
It was yielded from indirect talks in Egypt, based on a 20-point framework offered by United States President Donald Trump.
\n
"This means that all of the hostages will be released very soon, and Israel will withdraw their troops to an agreed-upon line as the first steps toward a strong, durable, and everlasting peace," Trump wrote on social media platform Truth Social on Wednesday, first announcing the deal.
\n
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he would convene his government later on Thursday to approve the agreement, adding in a statement that it was "a great day for Israel".
\n
Hamas also confirmed the accord, but called on Trump and the guarantor states to ensure that Israel fully implements the ceasefire.
\n
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, in a statement published by the Wafa news agency on Thursday, praised all mediators and stressed the need for all parties to commit to the immediate implementation of the agreement and reiterated that sovereignty over the Gaza Strip belongs to the State of Palestine.
\n
Abbas reiterated that the connection between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip must be achieved through unified Palestinian government institutions, including an administrative committee and Palestinian security forces, within the framework of a single system and law, and with Arab and international support.
\n
While the mediators had widely been praised, Mustafa Barghouti, founder of the Palestinian National Initiative, said that the primary credit for halting the war in Gaza and "ethnic cleansing of its people" goes to the heroism, steadfastness and bravery of the Palestinian people.
\n
Barghouti also said that caution must be maintained against the schemes of Netanyahu and his government, and that efforts should "focus on supporting the resilience of our people in the Gaza Strip", rebuilding what has been destroyed there, and confronting the colonial settlement onslaught in the West Bank and Jerusalem.
\n
A similar view was echoed by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. The second-largest armed group in Gaza said that the ceasefire agreement and prisoner exchange are not a "gift from anyone" and cited the sacrifices of the Palestinian people, although the group noted international efforts in securing the deal.
\n
News of the deal prompted celebrations in Israel, Gaza, and beyond, with Israeli families of hostages letting off fireworks, while Palestinians clapped and cheered in hopes of an end to their sufferings, though many are in doubt of Israeli commitments.
\n
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres commended the diplomatic efforts.
\n
"I urge all stakeholders to seize this momentous opportunity to establish a credible political path forward toward ending the occupation, recognizing the right to self-determination of the Palestinian people and achieving a two-state solution that enables Israelis and Palestinians to live in peace and security," Guterres said in a statement on Thursday.
\n
Qatar said the deal was the "first phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement, which will lead to ending the war, the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, and the entry of aid".
\n
In a televised speech on Wednesday, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi said that the talks in Sharm el-Sheikh were "progressing positively", Xinhua News Agency reported.
\n
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer welcomed the agreement and said the agreement must now be implemented "in full, without delay, and accompanied by the immediate lifting of all restrictions on lifesaving humanitarian aid to Gaza".
\n
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said New Delhi welcomes the agreement on the first phase of President Trump's peace plan and hopes the release of hostages and enhanced humanitarian assistance to the people of Gaza "will bring respite to them and pave the way for lasting peace".
\n
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, in an interview published on Wednesday, said Trump's plan may be general in approach, but remains the best proposal "on the table" for now.
\n
While the agreement is being described as a breakthrough, it was short on detail — including a timeline for Israeli withdrawal of all troops — and left many unresolved questions that could yet lead to its collapse, as has happened with previous peace efforts.
\n
Secretary-General of the Norwegian Refugee Council Jan Egeland said stopping the bombing alone "will not end survivors' suffering" and cautioned against repeating the mistakes of previous ceasefires.
\n
Contact the writers at cuihaipei@chinadaily.com.cn
A visitor experiences performing shadow puppets in Xiaoyi city, Shanxi province.
\n
Members of a shadow puppetry troupe prepare to start a show at a theater in Xiaoyi.
\n
Hou Jianchuan (center) and two of his colleagues perform a traditional production at the shadow puppetry theater in Xiaoyi.
\n
Hou checks his shadow puppets at his studio in Xiaoyi.
\n
Hou (right) and a colleague operate a shadow puppet together during a show.
\n
The audience watches a show at a shadow puppetry theater in Xiaoyi.
\n
Hou displays traditional Xiaoyi shadow puppets at his studio.
\n
Hou observes and carves the head of a shadow puppet.
\n
A painting of Huanglong Zhenren (center), a deity in Taoism who is believed to be the creator of shadow puppetry in China, decorates the wall of an artist's home in Xiaoyi.
\n
A shadow puppetry artist teaches children to play with puppets.
\n
As one of China's oldest theatrical forms, shadow puppetry boasts a history spanning over 2,200 years. In 2011, Chinese shadow puppetry was inscribed on the UNESCO Representative List of the Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity, with Xiaoyi city in Shanxi province recognized as a vital birthplace.
\n
"The Xiaoyi shadow puppetry is one of the cultural treasures of the Chinese people," said Hou Jianchuan, a 64-year-old practitioner from Xiaoyi. "I am dedicated to preserving and innovating this ancient art form."
\n
Born into a farming family steeped in the local tradition, Hou is breathing new life into this ancient art. "Growing up immersed in the world of shadow puppetry, listening to the stories and watching the performances, the cultural heritage became deeply ingrained in my being," he said. "My first encounter with shadow puppetry at a temple fair as a child left me utterly captivated."
\n
Chinese shadow puppetry utilizes light to project silhouette figures onto a screen, creating a captivating theatrical experience. By the Yuan Dynasty (1271-1368), the art form had spread to West Asia and Europe, bringing joy and artistic appreciation to audiences worldwide.
\n
To elevate the visibility and impact of Xiaoyi shadow puppetry, Hou and his colleagues have undertaken multiple performance tours in the United States, the Netherlands, and elsewhere, showcasing the allure of Chinese shadow puppetry on the global stage.
\n
"During our performances in Europe and the US, we incorporated percussion and integrated melodies from (Chinese movie) Red Sorghum, and classical music from (musical) Romeo and Juliet into traditional productions like Pigsy Marries a Bride to bridge language barriers and enable Western audiences to connect with the essence of Chinese shadow puppetry through familiar music," Hou said. "This cultural fusion has been widely lauded and has emerged as a highlight of cross-cultural exchange."
\n
With the establishment of the Xiaoyi Shadow Puppetry Museum and the inclusion of this art form in local schools' extracurricular programs, shadow puppetry has been gaining popularity in the area.
\n
Contact the writers at zhuxingxin@chinadaily.com.cn
The world economy is "better than feared", slowing only slightly this year and next, while global trade appeared more resilient than expected, although it may still deteriorate as the full impact of higher US tariffs kicks in, major international organizations have said.
\n
"How is the world economy coping? Short answer: better than feared, but worse than we need," IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said at a curtain-raiser event on Wednesday ahead of the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank next week in Washington.
\n
In her speech, Georgieva seemed to frame next week's agenda around one unifying challenge: steering a global economy undergoing historic transformations — technological, demographic, geopolitical and environmental — through an era where uncertainty is "the new normal and it is here to stay".
\n
"As our World Economic Outlook will explain next week, we see global growth slowing only slightly this year and next. All signs point to a world economy that has generally withstood acute strains from multiple shocks," she said.
\n
Global growth is forecast at roughly 3 percent over the medium term — down from 3.7 percent pre-pandemic, Georgieva said.
\n
That resilience is a result of improved policy fundamentals, private sector adaptability and supportive financial conditions, as well as less severe tariff outcomes than initially feared — for now, according to the IMF chief.
\n
"The US trade-weighted tariff rate has fallen from 23 percent in April to 17.5 percent now — still much higher than before. The US effective rate is now far above the rest of the world's," she said.
\n
The world has avoided a tit-for-tat slide into a trade war so far — but openness has nonetheless "taken a big hit", she added.
\n
The IMF chief proposed three medium-term policy goals: to durably lift growth, repair governments' finances and address excessive imbalances, both domestic and external.
\n
"Durably lifting growth requires higher private sector productivity," she said. "Governments must provide and protect the basic building blocks of free markets, including property rights, rule of law, good data, effective bankruptcy codes, strong financial sector oversight and independent yet accountable institutions."
\n
Resilient trade
\n
In another development, the World Trade Organization released its latest forecast, indicating that global trade has proven more resilient than anticipated so far this year, though the outlook for 2026 has worsened as the full impact of higher US tariffs becomes apparent.
\n
Global merchandise trade exceeded expectations in the first half of 2025 due to increased spending on AI products, a surge in North American imports before tariff hikes, and strong international trade, the WTO said in an update of "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics" released on Tuesday.
\n
As a result, economists at the Geneva-based organization raised the 2025 merchandise trade growth forecast to 2.4 percent, up from the previous 0.9 percent forecast in August.
\n
But they noted that with higher tariffs, elevated policy uncertainty and cooling growth, momentum is expected to ebb in 2026 — the projection for next year's growth is lowered to just 0.5 percent from a previous estimate of 1.8 percent, according to the WTO report.
\n
The organization also forecast slower growth in the trade of services, saying that global services export growth is now expected to slow to 4.6 percent in 2025 and to 4.4 percent next year. In 2024, the growth rate was 6.8 percent.
\n
Regionally, Asia is expected to make the largest positive contribution to world trade growth in 2025, but that impulse fades next year as the global economy cools and the full-year effect of higher tariffs materializes.
\n
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the WTO's director-general, said trade resilience in 2025 is thanks "in no small part" to the stability provided by the rules-based multilateral trading system.
\n
"Yet complacency is not an option. Today's disruptions to the global trade system are a call to action for nations to reimagine trade and together lay a stronger foundation that delivers greater prosperity for people everywhere," Okonjo-Iweala said.
The world economy is "better than feared", slowing only slightly this year and next, while global trade appeared more resilient than expected, although it may still deteriorate as the full impact of higher US tariffs kicks in, major international organizations have said.
\n
"How is the world economy coping? Short answer: better than feared, but worse than we need," IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said at a curtain-raiser event on Wednesday ahead of the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank next week in Washington.
\n
In her speech, Georgieva seemed to frame next week's agenda around one unifying challenge: steering a global economy undergoing historic transformations — technological, demographic, geopolitical and environmental — through an era where uncertainty is "the new normal and it is here to stay".
\n
"As our World Economic Outlook will explain next week, we see global growth slowing only slightly this year and next. All signs point to a world economy that has generally withstood acute strains from multiple shocks," she said.
\n
Global growth is forecast at roughly 3 percent over the medium term — down from 3.7 percent pre-pandemic, Georgieva said.
\n
That resilience is a result of improved policy fundamentals, private sector adaptability and supportive financial conditions, as well as less severe tariff outcomes than initially feared — for now, according to the IMF chief.
\n
"The US trade-weighted tariff rate has fallen from 23 percent in April to 17.5 percent now — still much higher than before. The US effective rate is now far above the rest of the world's," she said.
\n
The world has avoided a tit-for-tat slide into a trade war so far — but openness has nonetheless "taken a big hit", she added.
\n
The IMF chief proposed three medium-term policy goals: to durably lift growth, repair governments' finances and address excessive imbalances, both domestic and external.
\n
"Durably lifting growth requires higher private sector productivity," she said. "Governments must provide and protect the basic building blocks of free markets, including property rights, rule of law, good data, effective bankruptcy codes, strong financial sector oversight and independent yet accountable institutions."
\n
Resilient trade
\n
In another development, the World Trade Organization released its latest forecast, indicating that global trade has proven more resilient than anticipated so far this year, though the outlook for 2026 has worsened as the full impact of higher US tariffs becomes apparent.
\n
Global merchandise trade exceeded expectations in the first half of 2025 due to increased spending on AI products, a surge in North American imports before tariff hikes, and strong international trade, the WTO said in an update of "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics" released on Tuesday.
\n
As a result, economists at the Geneva-based organization raised the 2025 merchandise trade growth forecast to 2.4 percent, up from the previous 0.9 percent forecast in August.
\n
But they noted that with higher tariffs, elevated policy uncertainty and cooling growth, momentum is expected to ebb in 2026 — the projection for next year's growth is lowered to just 0.5 percent from a previous estimate of 1.8 percent, according to the WTO report.
\n
The organization also forecast slower growth in the trade of services, saying that global services export growth is now expected to slow to 4.6 percent in 2025 and to 4.4 percent next year. In 2024, the growth rate was 6.8 percent.
\n
Regionally, Asia is expected to make the largest positive contribution to world trade growth in 2025, but that impulse fades next year as the global economy cools and the full-year effect of higher tariffs materializes.
\n
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the WTO's director-general, said trade resilience in 2025 is thanks "in no small part" to the stability provided by the rules-based multilateral trading system.
\n
"Yet complacency is not an option. Today's disruptions to the global trade system are a call to action for nations to reimagine trade and together lay a stronger foundation that delivers greater prosperity for people everywhere," Okonjo-Iweala said.
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